Den politiska kartan i Spanien saknar motstycke och sällan, om någonsin, har resultatet varit så ovisst inför ett riksval. Opinionsundersökningarna tyder alla på en kraftig uppgång för socialistpartiet PSOE medan Partido Popular väntas rasa rejält. Den här gången handlar striden dock inte bara om huruvida vänster- eller högerblocket vinner, utan vem som kommer att hålla ledarpinnen hos de konservativa.
Om PSOE och Unidas Podemos tillsammans erhåller egen majoritet blir det en vänsterregering i Spanien och eventuellt i koalition. Om högern erhåller majoritet blir det utan tvekan en regering efter ”andalusisk modell”, det vill säga en koalition mellan Partido Popular och Ciudadanos, stödd på Vox.
Det troligaste är dock att inget av de två blocken får egen majoritet. Då kan de katalanska separatisterna få vågmästarroll och de har redan flaggat att de föredrar Sánchez som regeringschef, framför en konservativ kandidat som oavsett vilken det blir varslat om en ny intervention av regionalstyret.
Men det finns en fjärde väg också. Det är nämligen långt ifrån otänkbart att PSOE och liberala Ciudadanos tillsammans erhåller majoritet. Partiledarna Pedro Sánchez och Albert Rivera tecknade redan 2016 en regeringsöverenskommelse, som dock föll på att Podemos vägrade släppa fram dem.
Albert Rivera har under valkampanjen riktat hård kritik mot Sánchez, som han anklagar för att ha vikt sig för separatisterna. Ledaren för Ciudadanos har lovat sig hes att han under inga omständigheter kommer att stödja Sánchez, men kan mycket väl ställas inför ett stort dilemma. Om socialisterna nämligen kan komma till makten med separatisternas röster men föredrar att stödja sig på Ciudadanos, vilka argument kommer Rivera då att bruka för att nobba Sánchez?
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| Blogg: Spanien idag |
Sánchez och Rivera tecknande ett regeringsavtal redan 2016 och Ciudadanosledaren kommer ha svårt att förklara varför han inte stöder PSOE, om det innebär att Sánchez inte behöver förlita sig på de katalanska separatisterna. Foto: PSOE
Dela:
Vad som helst kan ske på söndag
Publicerad 2019-04-25 06:59BLOGG: SPANIEN IDAG Socialistpartiet PSOE kommer med all sannolikhet att vinna riksvalet på söndag med ganska stor marginal. Det är en visshet som saknar egentlig betydelse, då det på inget sätt garanterar att Pedro Sánchez behåller makten.
|
Mats Björkman Sydkusten |
| Den mest kompletta informationen om Spanien, varje dag i din e-postlåda. Prenumerera på SK Premium! |
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